Nvidia's Stock Price Rollercoaster: What's Driving the Hysteria?

Thiel Ditches Nvidia and Tesla? Good Riddance.

So, Peter Thiel's hedge fund apparently dumped its Nvidia stake and cut back on Tesla. Oh, boo-hoo. Like I'm supposed to shed a tear for a billionaire rearranging his deck chairs on the Titanic. Let's be real, these guys don't care about innovation or the future; it's all about squeezing every last drop of profit before the whole thing collapses.

Nvidia, Tesla... they're just the shiny objects distracting us from the real problems. Thiel jumping ship? It's probably a smart move for him. He's got the golden parachute. What about the rest of us holding the bag when the music stops?

The AI Hype Train is Overrated. Change My Mind.

Morningstar says Nvidia's stock is "fairly valued" at $225. Fairly valued? Based on what? Hopes and dreams? They're projecting some pie-in-the-sky $3 trillion to $4 trillion AI infrastructure spending per year by 2030. Yeah, and I'm projecting I'll win the lottery tomorrow. Wake me up when the robots start paying taxes.

OpenAI supposedly struck deals for $1.4 trillion of AI infrastructure. Color me skeptical. Sounds like a bunch of vaporware promises to pump up the stock price. And Nvidia "hinted" at $300 billion for 2026? Give me a break. Hints are for high school dances, not serious financial forecasts.

And don't even get me started on China. Nvidia's trying to sell there? Offcourse they are. They'll sell their grandma for a quick buck. But let's not pretend it's about anything other than greed. Geopolitics? Human rights? Those are just inconvenient speed bumps on the road to riches.

"Economic Moat"? More Like a Sandcastle.

Morningstar gives Nvidia a "wide economic moat" because of its GPUs and CUDA software. Oh, so they're too big to fail? That's what they said about Blockbuster. That's what they said about Lehman Brothers. This "moat" is built on "intangible assets" and "high customer switching costs." Translation: they've got a lock-in, for now. But locks get picked, and moats get drained. Ask Blackberry how that moat's working out.

The article mentions Nvidia's customers are "a handful of the largest tech companies in the world, and they all have an incentive to eventually diversify away from Nvidia to some extent." You think? These tech giants are ruthless. They'll smile to Nvidia's face while secretly developing their own custom chips to cut them out of the deal. Google's TPUs are just the beginning.

Nvidia has $57 billion in cash. So what? They'll probably just use it for stock buybacks to enrich the executives. The dividend is "virtually immaterial." Ain't that the truth. It's all about keeping the stock price high, not about rewarding actual investors.

Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe AI really will take over the world, and Nvidia will be our benevolent robot overlord. But I doubt it.

A Fool and His Money...

Thiel's out. That's all you need to know.